@uMarhobane
Robert Duigan
Cape independence, anti-Charterist |
https://t.co/BBfcmNBDVv
| https://t.co/gwv8pBVYh4
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
The recent trends in DA decline are entirely their fault.
https://marhobane.substack.com/p/ethnodemocracy-pt-3-splintering-minorities?utm_source=twitter&sd=pf
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
After trying to woo black voters by offering them token black leadership, BEE-lite and massive handouts, they realised that not only do black people not care, these policies were now eating away at their base.
Also they got too comfortable, and service quality declined somewhat. https://t.co/9CcuXATwZH
Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
: But being obviously better than the ANC, having no real Coloured competition, and comfortable with the liberal stigma against Afrikaners (think VF+), they have defaulted to arrogant dismissal of criticism.
But with the PA and VF+ eating their base, they had to pivot.
Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
@uMarhobane: After trying to woo black voters by offering them token black leadership, BEE-lite and massive handouts, they realised that not only do black people not care, these policies were now eating away at their base.
Also they got too comfortable, and service quality declined somewhat.
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
Synopsis on the @StellenboschUni convocation from an anonymous fren on the inside:
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
@uMarhobane: @VeryTiredAngry @sudo_killer @mavis5555 @Not_A_DoctorOk Here's some crap that came up on my TL. Maybe you can google these headlines.
Of course, your response will be "no statistics prove this is prevalent", but I only have so much energy for this stuff.
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Mac Mac
@dallasmcfarlan4
The DA will save South Africa after 2024 elections. There's no other option. Vote or shut up.
Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
@Mackeymac123
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
Ethnodemocracy Pt 2
The DA have smacked their heads on a hard ceiling in the Metros, but that should have been obvious after the debacle that was Nelson Mandela Bay.
https://marhobane.substack.com/p/ethnodemocracy-pt-2-escape-velocity?utm_source=twitter&sd=pf
Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
You saw all those big boring graphs of electoral data?Here is most of them.
Next post will deal with why the DA failed to achieve escape velocity from the ebony ceiling after the Zuma-era successes.
This was hard work. Please clap. https://marhobane.substack.com/p/south-africa-ethnodemocracy?utm_source=twitter&sd=pf
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
You saw all those big boring graphs of electoral data?Here is most of them.
Next post will deal with why the DA failed to achieve escape velocity from the ebony ceiling after the Zuma-era successes.
This was hard work. Please clap. https://marhobane.substack.com/p/south-africa-ethnodemocracy?utm_source=twitter&sd=pf
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
@uMarhobane: I mean, think about it - aside from the difference between local elections (favour local or opposition parties) and nationals (favour ANC), the swing has been small.
62-73-59 for Charterists; 24-17-22 for "white" parties.
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
NOTHING EVER CHANGES
(2024 figures based on the average of available polls)
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
Here's a cool one - electoral performance by ethnic clusters.
First graph is just the significant parties (ANC plotted on the right for legibility of small parties).
Second graph is the ethnic clusters - totally flat lines.
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
SA voter turnout is shockingly low.
Usually the IEC quotes the turnout as a % of registered voters, but not as a % of the voting age population (VAP).
As a % of the VAP, we were at 29.7% as of 2021, down from 85.5% in 1994.
% on the right axis, numbers on the left axis. https://t.co/2EZiwULgrN
Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
: Other obvious thing to notice is the higher turnout for Nationals, which follows a higher turnout for the ANC.
Seems ANC voters only feel the vibe at general elections.
I got the VAP figures from here (https://www.idea.int/data-tools/question-countries-view/441/310/ctr) and filed the gaps with AGR estimates.
Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
SA voter turnout is shockingly low.
Usually the IEC quotes the turnout as a % of registered voters, but not as a % of the voting age population (VAP).
As a % of the VAP, we were at 29.7% as of 2021, down from 85.5% in 1994.
% on the right axis, numbers on the left axis.
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
The electorate hate coalitions.
They mean constant chaos and paralysis while ANC cadres in permanent contracts drain the coffers and sabotage the infrastructure.
People lose confidence in the DA afterwards.
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
The DA in the Western Cape has been gradually eaten up by Coloured and Afrikaner identity voters, while Anglos have come to back them unanimously (@DawieScholtz's by-election stats):
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
After a fungus problem, veggies are recovering.
Leeks/onions, sweet potato, tomatoes, and guava saplings.
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
🧵:
Considering the extreme positions taken by @RenaldoGouws and @HermanMashaba on drug prohibition, I want to offer the moderate position of strict but proportional punishment, which I am unusually well qualified to speak on.
Graphs below. https://t.co/uLQODQyaHy https://t.co/fB0wRRw5RQ
Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
: Graphs are good here:
Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
🧵:
Considering the extreme positions taken by @RenaldoGouws and @HermanMashaba on drug prohibition, I want to offer the moderate position of strict but proportional punishment, which I am unusually well qualified to speak on.
Graphs below. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Robert-Duigan/publication/349111020_The_Denunciatory_Element_An_Interdisciplinary_Comparison_of_Japanese_and_English_Narcotics_Control_Policies/links/602123d3299bf1cc26aefb59/The-Denunciatory-Element-An-Interdisciplinary-Comparison-of-Japanese-and-English-Narcotics-Control-Policies.pdf
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
Tomorrow at 9:00 PM CAT:
>The SABC Cape independence debate
>Another Soros-funded NGO defending land invasions
>Anti-DA muni coalitions cocking everything up
>Gangsters on the property market
>Khoikhoi tribal politics in court https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3T6NBZyqWRw
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
The bias is ten times as bad in South Africa.
The Mail & Guardian, for example, has categorically refused to publish a single story of a white victim of black murderers since 2009.
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
"There are more people in the labour market. That's why there are fewer people in the labour market"
Make it make sense guys https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w13167/w13167.pdf
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
Constantly looking for context to this graph.
Best answers I have have still come from Ibn Khaldun.
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
@MavenPolitic I imagine a drastic cut in taxation and govt spending would go some way
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
@KaitlinRawson This made me laugh so hard
I'd love to see your sources lassie
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
>famous founding afrikaans poet,
>spends 10 years in the veld
>trains his dog to track mating termites
>trains toktokkie beetles to respond to his knocking
>discovers and discerns the pheromone signal system
>has thesis plagiarised by a Belgian, dies a morphine addict
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
"The DA congratulates itself on congratulating itself"
Trying to imagine the sort of guy who writes this kinda copy
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
Reading this.
Really shows the resourcefulness of Afrikaners. After Milner tries to extinguish Afrikaans, his policies are extinguished in only three years.
The election of the Liberals in GB allowed Smuts to dictate the terms of law in both Boer Republics.
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
I love how SASSA's logo says what it's about so directly - they give handouts
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
If you started a decade ago when these things were first on your manifesto, you could have built your own services by now.
And if you can't get devolved powers without independence, why resist secession?
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
Zapiro appears to have forgotten who has been leading the country for the past 28 years .
Notably absent is the notion that there are other parties besides the ANC.
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
"Why can't the system be changed? The wrong answer is that rivalries between [peers/siblings] are easier than structural conflicts because attacking the system is too dangerous for the individual.
No. The fear isn't the explanation for inaction..." https://t.co/KiiXoYPXXp
Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
: "...it's the defence against taking action.
The real reason you don't attack Dad isn't that he could kill you, but that you might kill him. He's the only dad you have, he is the only one keeping order - he is the order - you need him for status quo, however bad status quo is."
Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
"Why can't the system be changed? The wrong answer is that rivalries between [peers/siblings] are easier than structural conflicts because attacking the system is too dangerous for the individual.
No. The fear isn't the explanation for inaction..."
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
Okay, here's a shocker - SA's public finances today are almost the same as Zimbabwe's for 1998, the last year before terminal degrowth, and three and a half years before land expropriations:
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
Well that explains the international community's preference for PR constituencies
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
@NoHartAnthony @BBCNewsnight @J_Scott_95 Actually, you have it backwards.
Spending goes up, money is borrowed to cover the spending, IR is lowered and money printed to make the debt cheaper, inflation goes up.
Zimbabwe broke the bank in 20 years, because it is poor and small. But the bank always breaks eventually.
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Robert Duigan
@uMarhobane
A new visitor.
Anybody know what species this is? He's about as big as my top thumb joint.
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bar graph 72%
bar graph 72%
| Filename: Fu5wjKXXsAAmJWX.png | Source tweet: Apr 29, 2023 6:43 PM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
logos_flags_graphics 32%
bar graph 32%
logos_flags_graphics 32%
bar graph 32%
| Filename: Fu5wn__XsAAMkfp.png | Source tweet: Apr 29, 2023 6:43 PM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
logos_flags_graphics 36%
valknut 28%
logos_flags_graphics 36%
valknut 28%
| Filename: Fu5wtMRXwAcAIFn.jpg | Source tweet: Apr 29, 2023 6:43 PM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
map 98%
map 98%
| Filename: Fu5wMMeXsAAiJcn.png | Source tweet: Apr 29, 2023 6:43 PM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 99%
tldr 99%
| Filename: Fugo4YcWcAI0nDl.jpg | Source tweet: Apr 24, 2023 9:34 PM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
art_other 72%
militarized 27%
art_other 72%
militarized 27%
| Filename: FuTCEpPX0AUek9N.jpg | Source tweet: Apr 22, 2023 6:09 AM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 99%
bar graph 99%
| Filename: FuTCE3cXgAEOsEO.jpg | Source tweet: Apr 22, 2023 6:09 AM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 100%
bar graph 100%
| Filename: FuTCFMlX0AATYs1.jpg | Source tweet: Apr 22, 2023 6:09 AM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 100%
bar graph 100%
| Filename: FwziQ3gWIAICuaG.jpg | Source tweet: May 23, 2023 10:09 AM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
etc 84%
etc 84%
| Filename: FwziRm2WAAcfkNj.jpg | Source tweet: May 23, 2023 10:09 AM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
etc 65%
etc 65%
| Filename: FwziSVmXgAE9oE5.jpg | Source tweet: May 23, 2023 10:09 AM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
etc 99%
etc 99%
| Filename: FwziTFnWcAAq3vm.jpg | Source tweet: May 23, 2023 10:09 AM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
etc 99%
etc 99%
| Filename: FxO2HCqXgAQj8wc.jpg | Source tweet: May 28, 2023 5:28 PM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 99%
tldr 99%
| Filename: FxYd5caaEAcw-01.png | Source tweet: May 30, 2023 2:37 PM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 62%
bar graph 62%
| Filename: FxYd9NVaAAUOhL8.png | Source tweet: May 30, 2023 2:37 PM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 42%
star of david 31%
bar graph 42%
star of david 31%
| Filename: FxYfq6oaQAAe0Zj.png | Source tweet: May 30, 2023 2:37 PM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 94%
bar graph 94%
| Filename: FxmsL4oX0AAEwXY.jpg | Source tweet: Jun 2, 2023 8:34 AM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
| Filename: FxnRfDTWcAQYhhM.png | Source tweet: Jun 2, 2023 11:16 AM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
art_other 38%
art_other 38%
| Filename: FxmEwM4XgAII8Vz.png | Source tweet: Jun 2, 2023 6:00 AM | |
| Filename: FxeZ6y1XsAEtJpO.png | Source tweet: May 31, 2023 5:57 PM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 100%
bar graph 100%
| Filename: FxmFMyrXoAIzW1I.png | Source tweet: Jun 2, 2023 6:00 AM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 100%
bar graph 100%
| Filename: FxmFOrcXwAAf3dU.png | Source tweet: Jun 2, 2023 6:00 AM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 100%
bar graph 100%
| Filename: FxkIstNWwAI56s-.png | Source tweet: Jun 1, 2023 8:40 PM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 99%
tldr 99%
| Filename: FxjMsQBXwAwIPO4.jpg | Source tweet: Jun 1, 2023 4:17 PM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 100%
tldr 100%
| Filename: Fxd9w0HWAAYWl3u.png | Source tweet: May 31, 2023 3:53 PM | |
| Filename: Fxd9ojdWYAMnqlS.png | Source tweet: May 31, 2023 3:53 PM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 89%
bar graph 89%
| Filename: FxcY8lnX0AEryj4.jpg | Source tweet: May 31, 2023 8:33 AM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
art_other 33%
art_other 33%
| Filename: FxboqCQWYAMrdkB.png | Source tweet: May 31, 2023 5:07 AM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 100%
tldr 100%
| Filename: FxZ3C_ZWcAAadDZ.png | Source tweet: May 30, 2023 8:47 PM |
Copy image with current annotations Copied to clipboard!
Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
star of david 85%
star of david 85%
| Filename: FxZvR7PWAAI16cW.png | Source tweet: May 30, 2023 8:16 PM | |
| Filename: FxZvJobXgAAjrm1.png | Source tweet: May 30, 2023 8:16 PM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
map 59%
map 59%
| Filename: FxZvgbyX0AATMLd.jpg | Source tweet: May 30, 2023 8:16 PM |
Copy image with current annotations Copied to clipboard!
Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
star of david 71%
star of david 71%
| Filename: FxZvIdFXgAA2hf3.png | Source tweet: May 30, 2023 8:16 PM |
Copy image with current annotations Copied to clipboard!
Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 100%
tldr 100%
| Filename: FxXr6O8XsAUZqlp.png | Source tweet: May 30, 2023 10:39 AM |
Copy image with current annotations Copied to clipboard!
Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 100%
bar graph 100%
| Filename: FxXr7ppXwAMjdV5.png | Source tweet: May 30, 2023 10:39 AM |
Copy image with current annotations Copied to clipboard!
Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 100%
bar graph 100%
| Filename: FxXr9PHXoAIJX1c.png | Source tweet: May 30, 2023 10:39 AM |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 99%
bar graph 99%
| Filename: F0VWGVxXwAI5a4A.jpg | (previous profile or banner image) |
Copy image with current annotations Copied to clipboard!
Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
critters 89%
critters 89%
| Filename: F0hlP_8WwAIZVXt.jpg | (previous profile or banner image) |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
etc 99%
etc 99%
| Filename: F0hlQcxXwAEf7uC.jpg | (previous profile or banner image) |
Copy image with current annotations Copied to clipboard!
Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
art_other 69%
etc 29%
art_other 69%
etc 29%
| Filename: F0hlQyVWIAEp3r4.jpg | (previous profile or banner image) |
Copy image with current annotations Copied to clipboard!
Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
etc 99%
etc 99%
| Filename: F0hlRP3WAAEQC4W.jpg | (previous profile or banner image) |
Copy image with current annotations Copied to clipboard!
Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
art_other 51%
etc 48%
art_other 51%
etc 48%
star of david 84%
| Filename: F0V_2moWYAEeFlw.jpg | (previous profile or banner image) |
Copy image with current annotations Copied to clipboard!
Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
hitler 28%
hitler 28%
| Filename: FyQ6huvXsAYvgBR.jpg | (previous profile or banner image) |
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Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
map 100%
map 100%
| Filename: F0WH_ISWYAgpvEs.jpg | (previous profile or banner image) |
Copy image with current annotations Copied to clipboard!
Object Detector 20221101171408
(everything)
Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 99%
bar graph 99%