@KirkegaardEmil Emil O W Kirkegaard #psychology #genomics #hbd #rstats #statistics #transhumanism #dataviz #openscience #psychometrics @OpenPsychJour Denmark

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
World of difference!
True Discipline @TruueDiscipline
1/ Thread on presidential cabinet member demographics. Clinton:

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Every normal western democracy: Of course you must have your shit together to vote! Americans:

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Unblocking someone to engage in a 3rd party conversation to write something irrelevant, then reblock. Weird guy!

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
The NIH's misguided genetics data policy We await bona fide researcher Ritchie's high quality studies on race differences along with his FAQs to prevent anyone from misinterpreting his work. https://stuartritchie.substack.com/p/nih-genetics

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Gotta admit the fighting spirit of Jay Joseph. Some 5 decades after the war was lost for 1960s style blank slateism, he keeps the guerilla war going. A Reevaluation of the 1990 “Minnesota Study of Twins Reared Apart” IQ Study https://www.karger.com/Article/Abstract/521922

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Selective Hypothesis Reporting in Psychology: Comparing Preregistrations and Corresponding Publications https://osf.io/preprints/metaarxiv/nf6mq/

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Are women who get breast implants crazy? If you watch reality TV, one can get the impression as the women with huge fake boobs are invariably insane, but maybe these are not representative. Is there a good study? Yes. Somewhat elevated in P factor https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/article-abstract/217788

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
It appears Africans used to taller than Europeans in the USA, but this pattern has reversed over time. Weird? Also inconsistent with deprivation as cause, as of course Africans' environments are a lot better these days.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Look, here's one variable I propose has a big effect, and you haven't proven otherwise. Checkmate atheists! (Also being silent about how this would explain differences between the same groups when they live in countries without stunting. It's magic.)

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
GWAS of dyslexia with 1 million people (mostly controls), 50k self-reported diagnoses PGS explains 4-6% variance of language tests often used to study dyslexia https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-022-01192-y

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
According to a proven mathematical model with adjusted R2 = 0.99995, the next female prime minister will last 3 days.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
News really is getting more negative. @DavidRozado continues his efforts to document media behavior. The Increasing Negativity and Emotionality of News Media Headlines https://t.co/8xVhW5misD https://t.co/UuWvWDKTmQ
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: Right-wing media more negative. Is that due to having the underdog role and thus being critical of where things are going?

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
News really is getting more negative. @DavidRozado continues his efforts to document media behavior. The Increasing Negativity and Emotionality of News Media Headlines https://davidrozado.substack.com/p/the-increasing-negativity-and-emotionality

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Their book titles are actually very based when you take them at their word

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
tfw you are trying to trick women into your views by adding your favorite book to the end of a woman's book and posting it on libgen

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@SmutClyde @RetractionWatch Gotta be one of the dumbest Oliver D. Smith attempts so far. Everybody who uses ResearchGate knows that it will occasionally suggest that recent work was done by some lab, if you click yes to that, it will auto-generate one of these fictive labs. E.g. @jollyheretic clicked:

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Ukraine is basically a 14 words country. This is directly written in the constitution. https://www.refworld.org/pdfid/44a280124.pdf

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Americans are at peak sexism, racism, and white supremacism. Fascism is seeing a revival too https://t.co/pDcRAVzrKD
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: Nazism left in the dust! But 2012 was peak Hitler 🤔

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Americans are at peak sexism, racism, and white supremacism. Fascism is seeing a revival too

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Affirmative action in NIH grants, well, they tried https://denovo.substack.com/p/not-this-again-

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Much thanks to @Cidmonster for giving our work more attention! A +12% spike in readership. Thanks to her valiant efforts, about 3k more people are now familiar with the very strong evidence of genetic causation of the US racial gaps in intelligence. https://www.mdpi.com/2624-8611/1/1/34/htm

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
“MIT Built a Theranos for Plants” update https://t.co/XQ9kgM6Ctu https://t.co/gDHnDNn3xy
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: OK, it's not exactly cringe woke stuff, but @jollyheretic won't be surprised to see that the wife is into witches

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
"I recall a paper on national levels of traits in which the authors were told by reviewers not to report the observed means because they could not demonstrate measurement invariance. This is statistically-mandated data suppression." https://replicationindex.com/2022/10/15/personality-misch-masch-urement/

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@evo_homo @DarleneMoorman3 She's a confirmed genius, ready to tell us mere mortal about science (having done 0 herself)

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Man, Danish politics is a huge mess!

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@KirkegaardEmil: I couldn't think of a way to make this meme relevant for the post but it's good

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Pretty hilarious list. The literal vice president loses to the ex-wife of some billionaire (also at 5th). The European Union president is ranked 8th. Multiple other people I never heard of.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Judging by this tweet I was tempted to say it's a troll account, but alas

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@KirkegaardEmil: Important use of tax funding

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
First human in vitro gametogenesis in around 2032 according to Metaculus, I think sooner though #metaculus https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7385/?invite=vBsXN9

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
In Denmark, lizard people party is literally on the election posters

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Next location of the London conference on Intelligence.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
EU parliament members per capita. Huge favoritism to small countries. https://t.co/uzDRMoV2yH
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: A more sensible approach is to do it by economic contributions.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
EU parliament members per capita. Huge favoritism to small countries.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@ruepaix He married a Jewess and he is listed as a Jew, and also is mentioned as being advocating a Jewish IQ stuff, I mean... https://twitter.com/KirkegaardEmil/status/1435983691247980546/photo/1

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Seen this list before under another label

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Denmark replicated that parking tickets study, sort of. Top 10 countries (not adjusted for staff size) https://t.co/FhO4MN0cpZ https://t.co/gbV8DMGGz1
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: They have been posting these stories for years, based on FOIA data from Copenhagen Commune. I will also file one. Here's the winner in 2018. https://nyheder.tv2.dk/lokalt/2018-02-13-ambassade-fik-63-parkeringsboeder-men-betalte-kun-en

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Denmark replicated that parking tickets study, sort of. Top 10 countries (not adjusted for staff size) https://www.tv2lorry.dk/koebenhavn/udiplomatisk-parkering-her-er-ambassaderne-med-flest-ubetalte-parkeringsboeder

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Strange reasons for exclusion. Can't convert to Christianity, but one can be an atheist or hate the homeland of the Jews! https://t.co/t0c1T8FeHz
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: On average, Jews in America are: + extra educated + extra rich + extra woke + extra urban + extra left-wing voting

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
"Jews say that remembering the Holocaust (73%)" "More than half (56%) say that working for justice and equality is essential to what being Jewish means to them." https://t.co/ebc8H8I2jB https://t.co/uAQlO0veLj
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: Strange reasons for exclusion. Can't convert to Christianity, but one can be an atheist or hate the homeland of the Jews!

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
"Jews say that remembering the Holocaust (73%)" "More than half (56%) say that working for justice and equality is essential to what being Jewish means to them." https://www.pewforum.org/2013/10/01/jewish-american-beliefs-attitudes-culture-survey/

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Not super convincing, but take it as you may. In a sample of sperm donors with offspring count, n=48, extraversion was a negative predictor, self-described intellectual was positive, income positive etc. Some of these reach p < .01 despite sample size. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13504851.2015.1090543?journalCode=rael20

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
"standardization samples of the WAIS-III in Taiwan & the United States. In Taiwan, men obtained a higher Full Scale IQ than women of 4.35 IQ points & in the United States men obtained a higher Full Scale IQ than women of 2.78 IQ points." https://mankindquarterly.org/upcoming/issue/61-2/9

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Gentle reminder that eye color and skin color are _not_ monogenic or Mendelian traits. Biology textbooks are lying. AUCs are not _that_ impressive, .90 ish. Optimizing the genetic prediction of the eye and hair color for North Eurasian populations https://bmcgenomics.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12864-020-06923-1

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Mankind Quarterly as White Supremacy Club vs reality "51% of papers had only Western authors, 20.5% had only non-Western authors, and 28.6% had authors from both Western and non-Western countries." (no free PDF, sorry, ask Gerhard to upload to RG) https://t.co/J2feoF7zz6 https://t.co/D2XZAUeYMC
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: Where are the technophobes?

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Mankind Quarterly as White Supremacy Club vs reality "51% of papers had only Western authors, 20.5% had only non-Western authors, and 28.6% had authors from both Western and non-Western countries." (no free PDF, sorry, ask Gerhard to upload to RG) https://mankindquarterly.org/upcoming/issue/61-2/1

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Death, age, and marriage. A Danish register study. https://t.co/4RgGvanpFC https://t.co/iVSBVjUzE6
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: Strange finding is that Danish citizenship predicts mortality (??). But this dataset only has about 1.5% non-Danish citizens, so maybe these are elite immigrants.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Death, age, and marriage. A Danish register study. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1353%2Fdem.0.0106

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
In light of the death of James Flynn, we have set up a memorial website for him. We are collecting materials about him, so if you have a photo or video of him you want to share, contact me. https://james-flynn.net/

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
🇲🇽🇲🇽 Mexican advertisement is really something.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Based Malays keep citing my race review paper. Alas, maybe not on purpose. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337429197_Race_Differences_A_Very_Brief_Review

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Chester's trolley problem

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
This 2006 excerpt is so much spot on of realities of the Great Awokening that began about 7 years later.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
8:::::::::::DDDDD

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Accuracy: very high

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
"pretends to love the whole world in order to have the right to love no one" 🔥🔥

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Hitler as failed adaptationist.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Roman eugenics too. ... And probably dysgenics too.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
After weeks and weeks of cases going up, and hospitalizations, there the curves for serious cases do not change much, and are not even remotely close to the values from the spring. Even in the spring, Denmark had no detectable excess mortality, so don't expect much now.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
The Ashkenazis are going away too. No 'Jewish group selection strategy' to see here. Rather, Ashkenazis breed themselves away first. 2013 data too. https://www.pewforum.org/2013/10/01/chapter-2-intermarriage-and-other-demographics/

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@someguy676 Based Pilot Wave theory vs. Virgin anti-realist Copenhagen model https://www.quantamagazine.org/20160517-pilot-wave-theory-gains-experimental-support/

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
>finally country known for something in physics >it's the most annoying QM interpretation

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Dysgenic selection with regards to intelligence and education, comes not generally from the desired number of children, but, paradoxically, from smarter women being unable to realize their goals. https://www.oecd.org/els/family/SF_2_2-Ideal-actual-number-children.pdf

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@KirkegaardEmil: Fairly polite discussion. I approve! Jewish intellectual achievement is a scientific question like any other.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
So that new paper trying to show that using female-friendly materials reduces the spatial ability gap is exactly as dumb as I predicted. Interaction tests: p = 0.519 p = 0.019 Influence of the stimulus material on gender differences in a mental‑rotation test

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
>r != 1 on bottom plot

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Another general factor of rationality factor paper. But again, no serious attempt to distinguish the general intelligence variance from the other variance, and to see whether it really predicts anything much. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/346444036_Individual_differences_in_cognitive_biases_Some_evidence_for_a_rationality_factor_and_its_convergentdiscriminant_and_ecological_validity

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
I don't think there's serious long-term effects of COVID-19. Whenever I ask for evidence, I get anecdotes ("my uncle's brother...") or obviously p-hacked trash like this study. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589537020302078

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@wehrkatzer Emil, Danish racist

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@KirkegaardEmil: These new census don't really pass the sniff test though. Norwegian immigrants bad? Worse than Irish?? Sounds like 0% probability.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
(fake) history is written by the winners. Ideological Bias in the Psychology of Sex and Gender https://www.researchgate.net/publication/346447193_Ideological_Bias_in_the_Psychology_of_Sex_and_Gender

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Large parts of Europe are dying.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Agreeable people in science bad. @jollyheretic https://t.co/SHNAfEZFUp
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: @jollyheretic Conservatives in science good. "Emphasis on academic rigor and advancing knowledge were each correlated significantly and positively with political conservatism"

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@KirkegaardEmil: Agreeable people in science bad. @jollyheretic

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@charlesmurray @nicholas_wade I think they will come for you before him. But I think you are quite safe. I have been doing predictions on your fate for a while... #metaculus https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4776/?invite=QiRi2f

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@a_centrism @woddersz @IonaItalia

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@woddersz @a_centrism @IonaItalia I have no problem with Helen before or after this. Neither person said anything bad about the other. Her last reply to me on this said something along the lines that this area of statistics wasn't her strongest side. Iona is the triggered one.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
USA's excessive deaths are not looking good. The one for New York City is... interesting... One can get them by state here, but what about by county? That would be very nice. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@stock1847 @crimkadid

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
If you are wondering why 23andme gets your European ancestry wrong, it's summarized in these values. The first is precision (AKA Bayesian posterior), and the second is recall. E.g., my data shows about 50% Scandinavian/Danish, but true value is ~97%. https://www.23andme.com/ancestry-composition-guide/

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@Jones_Roddick I guess these are the power hoaxers, in your model, killing 1000s of their citizens just to fake some excess mortality data and make people believe in COVID. Ha!

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
What Corona? Only Swedenball is stupid enough to try that https://t.co/QcF1tdpCv6 https://t.co/QCFbORAclY
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: Danish COVID hospital numbers. Hospitalizations keep rising but the critical cases are mostly absent. Maybe they hospitalize people faster now, so more mild cases. Or treatment is better. Blue = hospitalized yellow = ICU grey = respirator https://www.sst.dk/da/corona/status-for-epidemien/tal-og-overvaagning

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
What Corona? Only Swedenball is stupid enough to try that https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/#z-scores-by-country

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Validity of national IQs. Note the date.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Anyone know of any open datasets or replications of this question? Seems too unlikely to believe. I am even tempted to do a quick replication on some polling site... https://quillette.com/2020/11/23/why-is-scientific-illiteracy-so-acceptable/

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@CanadanatDry Sounds false. No changes for me, still assigns me a lot of wrong non-Danish (German English) ancestry. These are very closely related populations (Anglo-Saxons (north Germans), and Central Germans).

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
"And we remove outliers: people whose genetic ancestry doesn't seem to match up with their survey answers."

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
A real published paper Not so far retracted, but Inquisitor Bergstrom is on the watch! https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1570677X17302204

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Attacking the target, and then retreating to attacking a strawman when called out. Show me any serious person who claimed one could predict specific variants of individuals using self-report race data. Self-report race data predicts genetic ancestry well, and vice versa.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
In light of recent years' events, especially the canceling even of The Mother of Hogwarts, this /pol/ thread is more amusing. https://t.co/JZrclzPU2B https://t.co/xaMBRpXkA1
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: Among the memes, this post sure hits a nail too. Once one becomes obsessed, one can see elements of 'enemy ideology' everywhere. Harry Potter ideology is a big theme among the Woke, so it is not entirely incorrect in this case, but still.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
In light of recent years' events, especially the canceling even of The Mother of Hogwarts, this /pol/ thread is more amusing. https://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/104470667/

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Almost 10 times more citations than competitor? NOT HIRED cuz she's a woman. Maybe they can use special women "fluid dynamics" to discovery missing fundamental particles. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1c_NyUhOZ8erdqU2AGZJZtNfFeA91Kefj/view

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Ever had data where you wanted to predict proportions that sum to 1? There's a special class of models for that, Dirichlet regression. Nice intro. #Rstats https://eeecon.uibk.ac.at/psychoco/2011/slides/Maier_hdt.pdf

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@RyanLangdon19 @MeliD32 @ewanbirney Here we go. I analyzed the public data in PING study (~1400 US kids), and these are the accuracies using quite simple approaches. Overall correlation accuracy to predict ancestry from self-report is r = .92. Predict self report from ancestry AUC = .91.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@tailcalled 60 years and counting

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Mohammad drops the 💣

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@salukigreyhound

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
"prejudiced" Who Punishes Promiscuous Women? Both Women and Men are Prejudiced Towards Sexually-Accessible Women, but Only Women Inflict Costly Punishment. https://t.co/JLXXyEDSdn https://t.co/EEJlNNNdc8
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: Also, shit tier evidence. Authoring fishing for that precious sex interaction, and it only materializes at p = .01 in 1/3 tries.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
"prejudiced" Who Punishes Promiscuous Women? Both Women and Men are Prejudiced Towards Sexually-Accessible Women, but Only Women Inflict Costly Punishment. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329870055_Who_Punishes_Promiscuous_Women_Both_Women_and_Men_are_Prejudiced_Towards_Sexually-Accessible_Women_but_Only_Women_Inflict_Costly_Punishment

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@foxyforecaster Market didn't care. https://t.co/kEfLsXjbkZ
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: @foxyforecaster Compare with e.g. new Coronavaccine for Pfizer

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@foxyforecaster Market didn't care.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Associations are also found within MZ pairs. Such findings mean that the associations are not entirely genetically caused since MZs of course are ~100% identical. https://t.co/Wf2QnxcXAW
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: Important: associations within DZs and siblings means the association is NOT caused by shared environment factors. These are the ones people mostly talk about, upbringing, neighborhood, parental values and what not. Largely ruled out!

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Correlations increase with age, but are present across all methods of measurement and all ages. https://t.co/T1pXnQIadk
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: Associations are also found within MZ pairs. Such findings mean that the associations are not entirely genetically caused since MZs of course are ~100% identical.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Somehow, authors decide to reverse the causal network in their regression model. 🙃 https://t.co/4pR4SyKf9q
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: Correlations increase with age, but are present across all methods of measurement and all ages.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@KirkegaardEmil: Somehow, authors decide to reverse the causal network in their regression model. 🙃

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Will US follow the Banana Republic style? Jail the ex-leaders. Long live the new leader (until she is gone, and we jail him too). https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-jail-or-prison/

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
If you were wondering how stupid Richard Nisbett is. Try this passage where he assumes that others think African intelligence levels are only due to genetic gaps, a position no hereditarian researcher one has argued for as far as I know.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Current state map vs. my prediction for EC votes. I guess Trump will get NC and thus end at 229 vs. my modal estimate of 216. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/president-results

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
These are TIMSS data, and they apparently don't show any notable increase from 1st to 2nd generation. https://t.co/PnHCEiYyno
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: And their multi-level model showing HDI having a good beta while their expected sociological variable (educational spending) predicted nothing beyond chance.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@KirkegaardEmil: These are TIMSS data, and they apparently don't show any notable increase from 1st to 2nd generation.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
So Twitter just added amren dot com to their #censorship list. Even censored in DMs! Maybe they will intensify these efforts with Biden in house now.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Goodbye grandpa!

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
It doesn't matter where you release violent offers to. Good or bad neighborhoods, no effects in within-person design. Swedish register data. https://t.co/U7aZfbd7a4 https://t.co/sMM4TUDYcg
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: it's a pretty large study, almost 47k released prisoners. The observed findings are NOT consistent with causal impacts of neighborhood crime levels, or welfare use levels, or income levels. In general, neighborhood effects seem to be pretty weak for most stuff. Sociology fail.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
It doesn't matter where you release violent offers to. Good or bad neighborhoods, no effects in within-person design. Swedish register data. https://academic.oup.com/schizophreniabulletin/article/43/5/1011/3859745#96103405

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Log-linear model of crypto market cap suggests 24 trillion USD cap in 2025. 🤪 Actually, making these with 6 months old data. https://rpubs.com/EmilOWK/coinmarketcap_marketcap

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Really is the best election meme so far.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@KirkegaardEmil: Survey data says, probably not far from truth. 44% would fight for their country in USA. https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2017/12/gallup-global-survey-would-you-fight-for-your-country-australia-ranked-very-very-poorly.html

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@AlbusExistence Yes

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@KirkegaardEmil: To note here, this is probably the only way people can read the paper since MQ is closed access. However, the number of reads is quite small, lower than the number of signatories. This means that those people probably did not read the paper they are signing against. @NoahCarl90

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Commies already working on their next page to get deleted and rewritten to conform current Party Policy. This article, of course, shows the various data disproving the 'race doesn't exist' idea, which is to say, standard admixture output. https://t.co/uUHCIMV7xs https://t.co/ehvdkMJAMV
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Commies already working on their next page to get deleted and rewritten to conform current Party Policy. This article, of course, shows the various data disproving the 'race doesn't exist' idea, which is to say, standard admixture output. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_genetic_clustering

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
When you are really trying hard to be nice to the environmentalists. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352250X19300521

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
"Official sources may not have called the race when this was Tweeted"

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Pretty nice illustration. Parental influences on offspring education: indirect genetic effects of non-cognitive skills https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.15.296236v2

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Sweet taste of power.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
ResearchBox, a new, simpler alternative to OSF for hosting science files. #openscience https://t.co/QxbHOSRUHo https://t.co/HuoIfIMFUS
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: Their 'featurama' presents the key features with examples. Pretty neat. https://researchbox.org/featureama

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
ResearchBox, a new, simpler alternative to OSF for hosting science files. #openscience https://researchbox.org/index.php

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@raruma @ArchieN1966 @machinegirling Jews Jews Jews!

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Nice referendum you guys have there, would be a shame if someone were to follow through though, heh. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1919_%C3%85landic_status_referendum

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
In Left Turn: How Liberal Media Bias Distorts the American Mind by economist Timothy Groseclose, there is a summary of a study trying to show that media affects voting behavior. In particular, introduction of Fox News to some area increases Republican%. https://t.co/79hJmEJ1Rn
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: Unfortunately, looking at the actual study is not convincing. I guess the effect is probably there, but who knows how large. Note the p values. 7 regressions, 3 with p < .01. Anything above that is suspect. https://eml.berkeley.edu/~sdellavi/wp/FoxVoteQJEAug07.pdf

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
In Left Turn: How Liberal Media Bias Distorts the American Mind by economist Timothy Groseclose, there is a summary of a study trying to show that media affects voting behavior. In particular, introduction of Fox News to some area increases Republican%.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Denmark has 19 people in intensive care for COVID-19. Entire country. https://www.sst.dk/da/corona/status-for-epidemien/tal-og-overvaagning

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
We were always at war etc. 🙃🙃 "The deep state is a conspiracy theory[1][2][3][4][5] which suggests that collusion and cronyism exist within the U.S. political system and constitute a hidden government within the legitimately elected government.[6][7]" https://greenwald.substack.com/p/cnn-is-just-the-latest-news-outlet

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
With all the recent progress with GPT-X... can we not resurrect Taybot? It's funnier than any comedian. #bringtayback https://www.google.com/search?q=taybot&tbm=isch

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Growth of the tidyverse. #rstats Swedenball cries, only at #10. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=tidyverse

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Ah, big surprise there... "The petition, incidentally, was organised by an individual whose blog is titled “M-L-M Mayhem!” (the “M-L-M” referring to “Marxism, Leninism, Maoism”)" https://t.co/9cOiJ8zAXT
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: tfw you try to launder your cowardice by ... citing a Cato Institute publication. 🤣

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Communists loooove committees, the secreter the better. https://t.co/9nnY1qXN5Z
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: Ah, big surprise there... "The petition, incidentally, was organised by an individual whose blog is titled “M-L-M Mayhem!” (the “M-L-M” referring to “Marxism, Leninism, Maoism”)"

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
"Every course at Portland State must be seen to advance “diversity”". Every. Course. Thought particles for justice was a fluke? heh! https://t.co/JJtsVjTVDp
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: Communists loooove committees, the secreter the better.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Love the faux debooonkings: “has been discredited as historically inaccurate by the academic community.” which really just means, there is maybe a majority against this view. Maybe since there are never surveys given to support these claims. https://t.co/8uvAaPSv8B
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: "Every course at Portland State must be seen to advance “diversity”". Every. Course. Thought particles for justice was a fluke? heh!

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
I guess this journal lived up to the expectation based on the name. https://t.co/ch3xIeiecx
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: Love the faux debooonkings: “has been discredited as historically inaccurate by the academic community.” which really just means, there is maybe a majority against this view. Maybe since there are never surveys given to support these claims.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
University spent 5½ harassing Bruce with an inquiry into ... harassment! Fortunately, he was found not guilty. 🙃 https://t.co/LLU3WyR4k9
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: I guess this journal lived up to the expectation based on the name.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
🤡 honk honk 🤡 "efforts were then underway “to make our campus a diverse space where free speech is valued but inflammatory ideas are not welcome.”" https://t.co/MK2zKziflV
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: University spent 5½ harassing Bruce with an inquiry into ... harassment! Fortunately, he was found not guilty. 🙃

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@KirkegaardEmil: 🤡 honk honk 🤡 "efforts were then underway “to make our campus a diverse space where free speech is valued but inflammatory ideas are not welcome.”"

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@G0yper @SilverVVulpes Is what he does.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 election? Median forecast is 22% #forecasting https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
What are the most important or prominent taboo topics in science? Anything I am missing here?

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Brain training works about as well as every other intervention to increase intelligence. Fool me once ... https://www.gwern.net/docs/dnb/2020-stojanoski.pdf

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
After we are done normalizing trannydom, we need a new challenge of mental illness. I suggest 'object sexuality'. https://t.co/7zDL9YfEqR https://t.co/1CkrQhurfS
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: Need to add to this section. If the media could promote this idea, soon we will have 100s of cases via copycatting. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Object_sexuality

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
After we are done normalizing trannydom, we need a new challenge of mental illness. I suggest 'object sexuality'. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5OiplprDFU

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Paint me like one of your French girls.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@ZachG932 any new stats on woke terms in Big News? Forecasters at #metaculus so far give best estimate of when epidemic will stop as 2024! https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4931/when-will-the-woke-index-in-us-elite-media-top/

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Apparently Benny Boy has been filing a lot of FOIA requests. Haters are gonna hate. https://t.co/obDIsjmjtM https://t.co/8TVDoILY6D
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: His friends too. This guy wants to know the "List of food and refreshments that were served". 🤡 https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/london_conference_on_intelligenc

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Apparently Benny Boy has been filing a lot of FOIA requests. Haters are gonna hate. https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/inquiry_into_the_london_conferen#incoming-1657948

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@nathancofnas Favorite mentally ill stalker Oliver D Smith made a new account and already edited your page 76 times in a 2 day editing spree. 🙃 https://rationalwiki.org/w/index.php?title=Nathan_Cofnas&offset=&limit=500&action=history

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Another example of human meddling in #forecasting just leads to unwarranted optimism bias. We have seen this pattern many times. https://otexts.com/fpp2/judgmental-adjustments.html

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Non-woke Benefits of diversity. Well, almost. https://www.nature.com/articles/nphys3089

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Even denying random fake facts can get you outed. For instance, what if you check the numbers and find that polar bears aren't actually dying out? Too far for the Censors. Surely indicates an underlying tendency to question authority that shall not be accepted. https://t.co/k3ER10KwWH
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: "Lest we paint too bleak a picture of academia as an institution overrun with dogmatic ideologues and spineless quislings unwilling or unable to defend academic freedom and free inquiry"... And one of their success stories still features a person being fired from a job!

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Some examples of self-suppressed research. I can probably mention a lot of other examples. Some academics I emailed regarding a popular paper they published 10 years ago, and never published a follow-up on: "Themes [for research] that causes a lot of complaints I try to avoid." https://t.co/NyKR3vy7VC
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: Even denying random fake facts can get you outed. For instance, what if you check the numbers and find that polar bears aren't actually dying out? Too far for the Censors. Surely indicates an underlying tendency to question authority that shall not be accepted.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Replication crisis made worse by senior academics' ability to block criticism, failed replications from appearing. If credibility had been more linked to objective measures, e.g. statistical power, prevalence of detectable errors, this problem would have been reduced. https://t.co/LjJBBdjABs
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: Some examples of self-suppressed research. I can probably mention a lot of other examples. Some academics I emailed regarding a popular paper they published 10 years ago, and never published a follow-up on: "Themes [for research] that causes a lot of complaints I try to avoid."

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
On the use of subjective evaluation methods in science, & their proneness to human bias. The scientific process should use more objective methods. Objective methods are often gamable, but gamability can be reduced while these subjective methods are inherently & irredeemably bad. https://t.co/7gkqjsFHc7
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: Replication crisis made worse by senior academics' ability to block criticism, failed replications from appearing. If credibility had been more linked to objective measures, e.g. statistical power, prevalence of detectable errors, this problem would have been reduced.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
“the guild of professionals to which I aspire to join has declared certain types of work worthy of sanction, so maybe I should just work on something else” https://t.co/d9tNTY5275 https://t.co/uaV1EFSzbc
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: On the use of subjective evaluation methods in science, & their proneness to human bias. The scientific process should use more objective methods. Objective methods are often gamable, but gamability can be reduced while these subjective methods are inherently & irredeemably bad.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
“the guild of professionals to which I aspire to join has declared certain types of work worthy of sanction, so maybe I should just work on something else” https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4698/10/4/82/htm

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Bling bling, Africans spend more on conspicuous consumption adjusted for income or "permanent income". https://www.nber.org/papers/w13392

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@adriawildlife Interesting data. So if we take these at face value, we expect a big increase in deaths in 2-3 weeks, yes? Here's the Danish numbers. Blue = all hospitalized Green = intensive care Grey = with respirator Note the ratio change between these types of care https://www.sst.dk/da/corona/status-for-epidemien/tal-og-overvaagning

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Essentially no excess deaths by Corona right now in Western Europe except for Spain. (Poor parts of Europe apparently can't even make proper govt statistics available.) https://t.co/U2cwR6yuhv https://t.co/xjy9oWfSNN
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: Most countries show basically no second wave in deaths. And even the worst countries have a quite small second wave death count. While it takes a few weeks for deaths to show up after cases, it seems to me that are we basically OK for now, don't need to introduce more measures.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Essentially no excess deaths by Corona right now in Western Europe except for Spain. (Poor parts of Europe apparently can't even make proper govt statistics available.) https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/#MAP_OF_THE_SOUL_ONE

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Another randomized study of Wikipedia's impact. Unfortunately, looks p-hacked to death, so who knows. Probably true, but this study is not very informative... http://www.marit.hinnosaar.net/wikipediamatters.pdf

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Science reformers, 2020: "Without access to peer-review reports and editorial comments, it is also unclear how published manuscripts have been assessed." Emil, 2014, OpenPsych Project: "Already there mate" https://septentrio.uit.no/index.php/SCS/article/view/5671

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@mlatorra There are apparently several such... https://www.imdb.com/find?q=Octoroon

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Got really lucky with my Supreme Court prediction. 2 days off only made 1 month in advance! https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5274/date-when-new-justice-appointed-to-the-court/

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
'my political opponents are evil' type paper. Somehow, not a single positive trait or aspect about half the voting population can be found by this social scientist. https://t.co/psh9vHq2Jl https://t.co/bsmEfOeTwd
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: Naturally, this guy is a highly cited social psychologist, who gets awards and writes textbooks. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0190272515575019?journalCode=spqc

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
'my political opponents are evil' type paper. Somehow, not a single positive trait or aspect about half the voting population can be found by this social scientist. https://jspp.psychopen.eu/article/view/750/html

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@blahblahblah9tn The term had another meaning when it come about, so now it's a misnomer. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homophobia

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
"Our results suggest that European investors gave the Confederacy approximately a 42 percent chance of victory prior to the battle of Gettysburg/Vicksburg." https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w13567/w13567.pdf

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Imagine spending half a decade writing an 800+ page book on statistics of measurement, and you get this review. https://www.jstor.org/stable/25125829?seq=1

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
The construction of the MMPI scales. Pretty different than normal scales today, highly interesting. The MMPI-2: History, Interpretation, and Clinical Issues https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2009-10532-014

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@KirkegaardEmil: One factor to rule them all, one factor to find them, One factor to bring them all. and in the darkness bind them.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@Wow_ThatsLame

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
You've been deboonked

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Really good book on criminology by John Wright & Matt DeLisi! 5/5 Love short books that convey a lot of stuff I didn't know. At 150 pages, this book does just that.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Chad Biden for president?

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@ArmorRenegadeOP

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
One way to induce system-wide bias on Wikipedia is to lobby to prevent sources from being used at all, anywhere on the site. This is done by having e.g., academics or 'good' journalists write that these outlets are 'unreliable' 'fake news', and then citing that to ban the.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
>Your morality is closest to that of a Libertarian. No surprise there... https://www.idrlabs.com/morality/6/test.php

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@KirkegaardEmil: She sounds awesome. "Sontag was born Susan Rosenblatt in New York City" "Remembering an unhappy childhood, with a cold, distant mother who was "always away"" "At 17, Sontag married writer Philip Rieff, who was a sociology instructor" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Susan_Sontag

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Woke weapons be like

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Fake? At least, this is what I see from her timeline. I don't see any archived posts with that content either.
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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@LegendOfHouse @akarlin88 I think it's a more honest version of the Woke list of white supremacist values.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Looks like that story is mostly read in Democrat safe zones. I guess they are reading the "this is fake Russian news" stories. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=hunter%20biden

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
r/changemyview: Genetic science will launch the far right into the popular mainstream https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/comments/g1804b/cmv_genetic_science_will_launch_the_far_right/

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@ImHardcory @EPoe187 @JaniceBrauner @ZeteticAdvocate @desiraethinking On your marriage day, I am going to gift you this printed out and framed.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Stunning and Brave

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@realStevenWalk Mega-aggressions coming up. I don't know if this is a joke or not.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@MaximSmyrnyi Using your brain to search yourself instead of tweeting 13k times.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
If at first you don't succeed, you can always bring with communist friends and try 7 more times. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashkenazi_Jewish_intelligence

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Economists and 'human capital' 🙃 "Define human capital, hi, as a measure of skills or knowledge accumulated through schooling." So before schooling, human capital was 0 for every person. https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/jisungpark/files/temperature_test_scores_and_human_capital_production_-_j_park_-_2-26-17.pdf

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Maybe they are gonna start banning Hitchcock movies soon. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Birds_(film)#Controversy

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
'Please don't cancel our paper! We are good people, we swear!' https://t.co/Auic4CjEPL
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: "Heh, don't try any population scoring of our GWAS, dissidents! We gonna make the summary statistics application based. Good luck!"

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
Fairly decent signal in the sibling control validations. Unfortunately, not enough data to fit GWAS to sibling control to remove the bias to begin with. Again, there is strong confounding, it seems, for educational related traits. Maybe IQ GWAS need to stop using EA MTAG. https://t.co/YlJ19eg8aL
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: 'Please don't cancel our paper! We are good people, we swear!'

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
They model the data as a P factor of sorts, with focus on externalizing behaviors (those that affect other people, in contrast to just being sad and sitting at home). https://t.co/SVfgPh2gUu
Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
: Fairly decent signal in the sibling control validations. Unfortunately, not enough data to fit GWAS to sibling control to remove the bias to begin with. Again, there is strong confounding, it seems, for educational related traits. Maybe IQ GWAS need to stop using EA MTAG.

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
@KirkegaardEmil: They model the data as a P factor of sorts, with focus on externalizing behaviors (those that affect other people, in contrast to just being sad and sitting at home).

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil
15 years of research into unsupervised outlier detection and... https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10618-015-0444-8

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Emil O W Kirkegaard @KirkegaardEmil