@seld_on Seldon Quant. Interests: classical hist/lit, mad science, shitposting. Pronouns are 𒂗/𒈗. Likes are mostly bookmarks or highlights.

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Seldon @seld_on
@seld_on: @AJiazhang The biggest obstacle currently is that building and sustaining a top 5 economy requires securing flows of raw/semi-finished material and energy which the country doesn't currently have.

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@default_friend we need him back

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Seldon @seld_on
@seld_on: It isn't going to be some kind of wholesome character building experience. It will just be Fort Bragg on steroids, the absolute worst of Army barracks culture with drugs, crime, etc but forced upon every young man or woman in the country

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Seldon @seld_on
So during/after that somewhat low-effort thread about AI which I made a few days ago, I also bought put options on $AI, the company, as well.

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Seldon @seld_on
@seld_on: The faster an organism grows, the more it needs to consume. It also needs to manage the heat and other waste flows generated by its growth as well. The problem with *all* explosive, exponential growth is that eventually you hit barriers well before you even know it.

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Seldon @seld_on
The problem with the nanotech apocalypse scenario is that there's absolutely no explanation AT ALL as to where the energy to transform matter into grey goo or paperclips even comes from in the first place
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Seldon @seld_on
Essentially the problem with the argument is literal magical thinking. The AI is smarter so it will inevitably use tech that somehow works like magic and breaks the laws of physics. https://t.co/UrOGjzYD0m
Seldon @seld_on
: Never mind that it requires actual humans to do 99% of the initial legwork. That it can't meaningfully communicate or even cogitate without being noticed. Or that there's no realistic way to transform the entire Earth into computronium within a week. Or that GPT is a parlor trick

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Seldon @seld_on
This is just the "grey goo" scenario, which is already stupid (because it runs into even harder thermodynamic limits of metabolism) but with a bunch of EXTRA stupid steps which require literal magic to perform. https://t.co/uCk1vi99gv
Seldon @seld_on
: Essentially the problem with the argument is literal magical thinking. The AI is smarter so it will inevitably use tech that somehow works like magic and breaks the laws of physics.

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Seldon @seld_on
@seld_on: This is just the "grey goo" scenario, which is already stupid (because it runs into even harder thermodynamic limits of metabolism) but with a bunch of EXTRA stupid steps which require literal magic to perform.

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Seldon @seld_on
AI doomsday scenarios are literally impossible. There is a basic constraint that has been completely overlooked in "alignment" discourse that nobody seems to be talking about: Thermodynamics.
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Seldon @seld_on
"The answer to this is obvious, it has to be ruthlessly and violently suppressed by any means available"
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Seldon @seld_on
@readynafewdays maybe? "Tawûsê Melek refused to bow before Adam, the first human, when God ordered the Seven Angels to do so. The command was actually a test, meant to determine which of these angels was most loyal to God by not prostrating themselves to someone other than their creator."

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Seldon @seld_on
@DrunkAustrian @BrandonFvcker You're off by a couple orders of magnitude, it's in the kiloton range (strangely enough this is manageable) Relativistic speeds won't really be a problem bc nobody will manage to attain them easily

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Seldon @seld_on
2053. I think life expectancy will be mostly stagnant rather than outright decline. You need increasingly advanced medicine or expensive (at state level) interventions to maintain after a certain point. Both will be out of reach of nations that can't break out of middle-income.
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Seldon @seld_on
easy choices smh
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Seldon @seld_on
Absolute gigacope, no you won't
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Somehow this doesn't make me feel any better atm
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Seldon @seld_on
Tax return this year is like a hundred pages long

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Seldon @seld_on
I actually got bored with purging xenos in Stellaris after a while. More satisfying to find creative ways to enslave them. Would turn the cutest ones I could find into livestock, modify them to be both tasty as well as hyper-intelligent
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Seldon @seld_on
"What are white people even good at?" "Violence" "..." "Destruction" "..." "Oppression" "..." "Genocide"
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Seldon @seld_on
Yes, the winners of a war are the people who win. In other words, they are the ones who are not on the side which has lost.
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Seldon @seld_on
China has stealth aircraft and drones of their own too btw.
Eurasian Emperor @empireenjoyer10

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Seldon @seld_on
I recall George Friedman once remarked that nuclear war was much further off the table and completely unthinkable from the perspective of both US and Soviet/Russian strategic planners. The reason? Because most of the people in charge have families, children, grandchildren.
Seldon @seld_on
@seld_on: Only way for a civilization-state to survive in any meaningful form now, beyond being a McDonaldized American satrapy, is to be capable and willing to deploy massive amounts of nuclear weaponry. Perhaps even plan to use them in a pre-emptive strike and/or on the battlefield.

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Seldon @seld_on
Only way for a civilization-state to survive in any meaningful form now, beyond being a McDonaldized American satrapy, is to be capable and willing to deploy massive amounts of nuclear weaponry. Perhaps even plan to use them in a pre-emptive strike and/or on the battlefield. https://t.co/o9RA3YeniC
Seldon @seld_on
: And if your nation doesn't have that yet, then the path forward is to get one, or preferably, several thousands of them, by any means necessary.

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Seldon @seld_on
Now we live in an era of thermonuclear weaponry. https://t.co/5mZdshmSFq
Seldon @seld_on
: Only way for a civilization-state to survive in any meaningful form now, beyond being a McDonaldized American satrapy, is to be capable and willing to deploy massive amounts of nuclear weaponry. Perhaps even plan to use them in a pre-emptive strike and/or on the battlefield.

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Seldon @seld_on
Japanese were willing to throw their entire civilian population into the meat grinder that would have become their home islands, even the atomic bombings didn't really change that (Soviet invasion did). Though they backed down in the end, it likely won them more favorable terms. https://t.co/oGHTQLdiH5
Seldon @seld_on
: By which I mean, Japan did not have its institutions completely gutted, retained its traditional values, has not been subjected to the same level of repeated humiliation, and actually retains some semblance of an actual military force.

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Seldon @seld_on
By which I mean, Japan did not have its institutions completely gutted, retained its traditional values, has not been subjected to the same level of repeated humiliation, and actually retains some semblance of an actual military force. https://t.co/po01rZ4BbA
Seldon @seld_on
: Now we live in an era of thermonuclear weaponry.

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Seldon @seld_on
@seld_on: Japanese were willing to throw their entire civilian population into the meat grinder that would have become their home islands, even the atomic bombings didn't really change that (Soviet invasion did). Though they backed down in the end, it likely won them more favorable terms.

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Seldon @seld_on
@seld_on: Macedonian style armies were not all phalangites, there were hypaspists, peltasts, thorakitai and so on. No reason to assume permanent doctrinal inflexiblity.

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Seldon @seld_on
@Signalis88 That, plus I might be a little trigger happy

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Seldon @seld_on
This is probably a converted fire lookout station. It's on a hill in the middle of nowhere and there's a radio mast nearby. Its Zillow listing states that it was built in 1991, so it's not a new design. Compare the interior of the tower to one that is in use:
I am at a true and honest to god loss for words

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Seldon @seld_on
@readynafewdays Short answer: Lots and lots of hills.

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Seldon @seld_on
Actually, you'd want to place your scientific bases for dangerous and unethical research on Venus, not Mars. No ready access to materials. Much steeper gravity well. But the best part is that it comes with a readymade sterilization procedure.
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Seldon @seld_on
: "I ponder whether it is possible that one might allege I am guilty of an act of moral failure, having failed to maintain a proper course along the roadway."

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Seldon @seld_on
Adam Van Buskirk @Empty_America
@Empty_America: Another similar guy is John Quijada. Works at the DMV and has devoted his life to developing the final and perfect artificial language: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ithkuil

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Seldon @seld_on
@seld_on: Off Earth, there's also the potential problem of phosphorus not being abundant in a local environment. Or just not easily available: some of the best sources on Earth come from sedimentary minerals of biological origin. Big hurdle for space.

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Seldon @seld_on
Modern superstring theory postulates the existence of ten spatial dimensions, three seen, seven unseen. The universe is governed by four fundamental forces, unified at higher energy states and shorter length scales. Particles are mirrored with corresponding antiparticles. etc.

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@seld_on: Sikkim is like a clear-cut, almost unambiguous case of what happens when you let unassimilable foreigners come to replace your own people.

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Seldon @seld_on
>it's real
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Seldon @seld_on
: Same star system as in Avatar ironically enough. Even deeper lore.

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Seldon @seld_on
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To be fair, I set standards down to as bare minimum as I could possibly conceive and it's still extremely bleak People need to understand how power law distributions work
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Seldon @seld_on
Should be shorting everything right now, especially tech. Every single one of them is going to be gutted by 5% interest rates after a decade of cheap money. There is no dip to buy here. This isn't just a bear market, it's a Cocaine Bear market. https://t.co/HVHlhlJFiz https://t.co/x5A2FUvjEj
Seldon @seld_on
: Don't be this r*tard.

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Seldon @seld_on
Should be shorting everything right now, especially tech. Every single one of them is going to be gutted by 5% interest rates after a decade of cheap money. There is no dip to buy here. This isn't just a bear market, it's a Cocaine Bear market.
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Me today:
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Seldon @seld_on
W40K was right about AI

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Seldon @seld_on
@readynafewdays Solar activity is a weak explanation, fluctuations are pretty minimal on decadal timescales. Probably *is* due to warming actually, i.e. glacial runoff disrupts thermohaline circulation.

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Seldon @seld_on
I know the perfect person for the job @elonmusk. A humble, diligent public servant with a passion for history, archaeology, and water infrastructure is just the man you need.
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Seldon @seld_on
@elonmusk There's a solution to this

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Seldon @seld_on
The midwit AI doesn't even understand basic prompts https://t.co/3GP5419Sub
Seldon @seld_on
: Either this is hardcoded or it really is that dumb.

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Seldon @seld_on
@ThatSaturnO It doesn't really change much if you remove it though, or don't tell it to keep it brief. It just says pretty much the same thing.

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Seldon @seld_on
The midwit AI doesn't even understand basic prompts

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Seldon @seld_on
@seld_on: No idea where the Qanon comparison is coming from, but it reads strongly as "all these chuds are exactly the same" which is how they view normal well-adjusted males in general. And Henry Cavill passes the physiognomy check on that.

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"..."
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Seldon @seld_on
Europe is uniquely doomed as it is the *primary* architect and promulgator of the framework that will enable its demographic restructuring. It is not sufficient to merely not care. You have to actively repudiate, abrogate, and withdraw from every human rights treaty since 1949.
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Seldon @seld_on
This guy is a serious tweaker. One thing to be occasionally sloppy about shaving, another to miss something like this for a public picture.
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Seldon @seld_on
One silver lining about new Musk Twitter is that astroturfed topics are finally not getting boosted anymore. This is currently the front page leader of every major US news outlet right now, but way out of sight in the feed today.

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Seldon @seld_on
@seld_on: yeah bro fake sustainable artificial meat is the future just trust me bro

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Seldon @seld_on
"You don't say."
Sam Greene @samagreene
Time for a reminder that there's about 50 years of research showing a clear correlation between a background in engineering and support for authoritarianism. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1589639376186724354

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Seldon @seld_on
This is in fact, correct. January 1, 1836 in the Julian calendar was a Wednesday.
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Nemets confirmed in Vic3

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"what if we build tower of babel but sideways"
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Seldon @seld_on
@seld_on: This isn't even purely hypothetical btw. Few other reasons exist to design and deploy a multi-MT nuclear torpedo.

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Seldon @seld_on
"We should fight WWIII to support conquest of the world by brutal tyrants."
No. If we must, we should fight WWIII to prevent the conquest of the world by brutal tyrants. Culture is only one piece of freedom. Freedom is what is worth fighting for. https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1578549491111641088

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Seldon @seld_on
Anna Frohling 🐡 @pencilforge
really cool that we live in a world where all animation gets canceled unless its funded by a celebrity https://twitter.com/pencilforge/status/1578486116738473984/photo/1

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Seldon @seld_on
@seld_on: The main issue is that there's nobody to fight. Ships are expensive and most of the other factions are in the same boat as you. There's the aliens, but that's not really advisable until you're much further up the tech tree.

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Seldon @seld_on
@seld_on: Ship combat is, at face value, probably one of the least intuitive elements of this game. It's also pretty sparse so far, so I don't have any active examples of it but here's a profile of an early-game warship. This one is built for cruising around the inner Solar System.

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Seldon @seld_on
Have been trying out Terra Invicta recently; it's quite impressive yet also just way way too long and drawn out. TL;DR the game is a grand strategy version of XCOM with hard sci-fi elements https://t.co/1NZI6geBdK
Seldon @seld_on
: You play a shadowy cabal with some agenda re: the new arrivals. Fight them off, appease them, exterminate them etc. You take control of countries and federations and use their funding, tech, and launch capacity to bootstrap your presence in space.

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Seldon @seld_on
Have been trying out Terra Invicta recently; it's quite impressive yet also just way way too long and drawn out. TL;DR the game is a grand strategy version of XCOM with hard sci-fi elements

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@seld_on: The introduced Earth plants have made much of it resemble the Central Asian steppe but there's something that looks and smells off. The air smells of perchlorate and rusted metal. The sun is too dim.

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Seldon @seld_on
Testing out an acrylic paint set + worldbuilding

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@StalinFrog Obligatory

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I had to take this because I was a problem child
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@usutav I regret to inform you

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Seldon @seld_on
@Empty_America Adirondacks and Catskills are exemplars of the latter: granites, basalts, all of which emerged after the sedimentary layers were eroded away by time and heavy glaciation. https://t.co/xmmEshrLps
Seldon @seld_on
: @Empty_America One possible exception is Iceland, which due to it being the newest continental crust being created, is also mostly igneous rock. Has a completely different energy.

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Seldon @seld_on
@seld_on: @Empty_America Adirondacks and Catskills are exemplars of the latter: granites, basalts, all of which emerged after the sedimentary layers were eroded away by time and heavy glaciation.

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Seldon @seld_on
"Greater Turan cannot be stopped."
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When you need to spice up your sugar cookies

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Seldon @seld_on
@DavidCayJ @bgmasters "Yes, that sounds absolutely fantastic for me and my 3 kids. He's got my vote"

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)














Classifier 20221028131014
etc 31%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
militarized 71%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
art_other 49%
etc 41%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)
















Classifier 20221028131014
art_other 58%
toons other 37%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)


Classifier 20221028131014
logos_flags_graphics 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
etc 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
etc 70%
art_other 28%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)
















Classifier 20221028131014
etc 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)









Classifier 20221028131014
logos_flags_graphics 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)


Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
art_other 71%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)







Classifier 20221028131014
art_other 68%
etc 30%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)






Classifier 20221028131014
map 57%
toons other 26%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)













Classifier 20221028131014
map 76%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)








Classifier 20221028131014
map 93%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
etc 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
mspaint style 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
map 81%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
map 78%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
map 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 77%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)






Classifier 20221028131014
logos_flags_graphics 43%
map 30%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 28%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)


Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)


Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)







Classifier 20221028131014

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)












Classifier 20221028131014
etc 58%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)


Classifier 20221028131014
art_other 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)










Classifier 20221028131014
critters 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)


Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)











Classifier 20221028131014
art_other 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)











Classifier 20221028131014
art_other 81%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)


















Classifier 20221028131014
art_other 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)












Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)











Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)















Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)














Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
map 85%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
etc 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)








Classifier 20221028131014
etc 98%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)








Classifier 20221028131014
etc 88%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)





Classifier 20221028131014
map 98%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)







Classifier 20221028131014
etc 55%
art_other 26%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)


Classifier 20221028131014
map 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)















Classifier 20221028131014
etc 94%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
art_other 64%
etc 35%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)





Classifier 20221028131014
map 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
etc 52%
firearm 28%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
map 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
mspaint style 100%
star of david 88%
star of david 77%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)








Classifier 20221028131014
star of david 97%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
logos_flags_graphics 66%
anime 29%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)







Classifier 20221028131014
critters 64%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)


Classifier 20221028131014
toons other 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)


Classifier 20221028131014
map 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)







Classifier 20221028131014
map 93%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 70%
map 28%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)





Classifier 20221028131014
map 97%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
map 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
proud boys rooster 46%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)






Classifier 20221028131014
hitler 27%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)









Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)


Classifier 20221028131014
map 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
art_other 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 98%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)






Classifier 20221028131014
art_other 59%
critters 32%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)


Classifier 20221028131014
etc 65%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)






Classifier 20221028131014
etc 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
art_other 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
art_other 66%
etc 25%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)






Classifier 20221028131014
art_other 97%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)


Classifier 20221028131014
map 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
map 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
map 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
map 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
map 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
map 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
map 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
map 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)






Classifier 20221028131014
etc 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)


Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 42%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)





Classifier 20221028131014
toons other 64%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 94%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)










Classifier 20221028131014
art_other 73%
etc 26%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)










Classifier 20221028131014
map 59%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
hitler 27%