@MacroStratChris Sir Kurtosis, Lord of Fat Tails 😏 13 year FICC | Predicted '22 Recession Oct '21 | Ex BNP Rates & FX. | EMEA Sovereign Debt | $SPY $QQQ $DXY #gold #bitcoin Atlanta, GA

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Going to be rough for all the equity and commodity bears out there. $DXY

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#btc #bitcoin 25 delta skew not promising

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$VIX continues lower. $SPY
$VIX to 17.5 $SPY

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@RobertM59228766 Possibly. People forget inflation was a common occurrence. Cycles gonna cycle. The problem is there are no deflation cycles anymore

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#btc #bitcoin longs liquidated.
#btc    #bitcoin    spec positioning growing... probably not the right time imo

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#btc    #bitcoin    spec positioning growing... probably not the right time imo

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HKMA aggregate balance reduced to $76.963B. $USDHKD

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Still going lower $SPY
Momentum lower is huge, but intranasal price action hitting bottom of range + potential pullback signal. Unfortunately, intermediate range (1-3 months) bottom is about 400 pts lower. $SPY $SPX $VIX

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If a ban on investments in #China occurs, yuan goes to 8 possibly 9. CCP will struggle. If US leads, others will likely follow. Record capital leaving China, thus it depends on foreign capital investment. $USDCNY $FXI

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I warned about real yields. I warned what it would do to #gold, but you didn't listen. For the 18th time, "It's different this time." Well, here's the ramp in $USDCNY with 5y reals nearing cycle highs.

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Again, #Russia ain't dedollarizing because they want to. They were forced to sell tsy after being shut out of dollar funding post-Crimea. They also increased tsy when the $ was weak, sold when 💪🏻 You think it's a coincidence when they started aggressively selling Feb '22? lol

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@ZFXtrading not sure but think we're stopping at 13880 $EURUSD

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#btc #Bitcoin
Starting to get a clustering of warnings $BTCUSD #BTC

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I told you to not believe the hype train. #gold now neg YTD reversing a huge blow your load to quick rally.

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Financial Audit: "You have $1500 in GameStop..." Guy: "I need more." Lolz $GME
This podcast is interesting. Goes to show you just how bad the Amaerican financial situation is.

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Can't find dollars, so we'll replace with a currency printed on a larger scale and by virtually no one...

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This podcast is interesting. Goes to show you just how bad the Amaerican financial situation is.

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Look, I was ready to believe consumer prices were fake news and weather the storm. But, now my energy drinks went from 2/$4.25 to 2/$5

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Momentum lower is huge, but intranasal price action hitting bottom of range + potential pullback signal. Unfortunately, intermediate range (1-3 months) bottom is about 400 pts lower. $SPY $SPX $VIX

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Little update: The dynamics surrounding bonds have made things pretty interesting. $SPY $TLT $QQQ $VIX #gold #btc
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#gold round trips an 8% YTD on muh Fed pivot. Now only up .56%
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@Citrini7 - worried about #China yet? Hang Seng & $USDCNY (blue) $SPY $FXI $EEM $DXY $EURUSD $KWEB

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Try again. "Nobody" is a strong word. I've been talking about Fed tightening since Dec '21. Focused on QT throughout '22. Problem is podcast circuit is a big circle jerk. @GeorgeGammon @MacroAlf $SPY $QQQ #btc    #gold $EURUSD
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Starting to get a clustering of warnings $BTCUSD #BTC

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#tether    and crypto fractional reserve banking is the only real think keeping #btc    #bitcoin    alive $MSTR

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"More Recession Signs: Money Supply Growth Went Negative Again In December" I was REALLY fuckin close lolz last August. $SPY $QQQ #gold #btc http://THEMACROSTRAT.SUBSTACK.COM
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home girl has been fucking obliterated. STILL -72% from ATH with a 1D z-score of 1.78 lolz $ARKK $TSLA
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@BLS_gov goal seeking Biden's "amazing" economy as all other data sets got to shit
517k #NFP. BoA was calling for a neg print. Everyone objectively knows the employment figures are bullshit. Nominally, small biz gains are declining. YoY 1-19 employees neg. 20-29 declining rapidly. Avg weekly hours modestly tick higher tho.

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Chart from yesterday on #gold. Run up on muh pivot but 5- and 10y reals still quite elevated
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517k #NFP. BoA was calling for a neg print. Everyone objectively knows the employment figures are bullshit. Nominally, small biz gains are declining. YoY 1-19 employees neg. 20-29 declining rapidly. Avg weekly hours modestly tick higher tho.

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Cherries getting popped lolz. #China reopening bulls getting a fistful of reality. I been fighting this fucking narrative for almost a year now. Now this, lol. Huh, wonder why this is 🤔 HRI has been on the bandwagon for a while now.
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With #oil declining, there is less stress on the #yen as #China struggled with their dollar shortage. Clear recession indicator: #JPY up, dollar down
This chart bullish or naw? Muh #China reopening #Oil I said oil would collapse when it hit $127/bbl Pain aint over my guy

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This chart bullish or naw? Muh #China reopening #Oil I said oil would collapse when it hit $127/bbl Pain aint over my guy

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Some call this bump... transitory. I warned. $SPY $QQQ $ARKK $TSLA #btc    #gold http://THEMACROSTRAT.SUBSTACK.COM

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Again, here's the 2y hence/2y spread (chart from last week, it's worse now). Recession in Q2/3-23 IMO
100% of US yield curves are inverted. Please, continue to wish for soft landings. Never seen 100% of curves inverted and no recession. $SPY $QQQ $TSLA $TLT #btc #bitcoin #gold

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100% of US yield curves are inverted. Please, continue to wish for soft landings. Never seen 100% of curves inverted and no recession. $SPY $QQQ $TSLA $TLT #btc #bitcoin #gold
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braaaaah lol I literally warned about this a year ago. Base money -15% YoY (lowest ever) M2 -1.5% YoY I reckon in three months time, the world is going to stop (figuratively). http://THEMACROSTRAT.SUBSTACK.COM $SPY $QQQ $TSLA #btc    #Bitcoin    #gold

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Softish landing of 2022 is in the rear view mirror.

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Short portions in the $NOPE "absolute return" ETF. $TSLA $Z $AFRM $WRBY
@nope_its_lily this shit is fuckin wild lol

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@nope_its_lily this shit is fuckin wild lol

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because it was never about fuckin covid. Same time zero policy hit was the same time oil hit 140 and #China hit the fuckin $ swap markets.

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Hey no recession tho right @MetreSteven ?

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Credit, but it's peaking as interest rates and tightening standards rise sharply. Tick tick tick
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Ross Goober's etf looking rough
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@rovercrc Lol oh? #btc #bitcoin

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As #China FX balance increases, the yuan should then increase in value. Problem, though, is the FX balance has been sustainably declining as $USDCNY falls rapidly. I've noted since Q1-22 China dollar issue. Then pointed out there huge $ swap position.
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#China cannot finish residential projects. That didn't matter when the population was growing and everyone was like a stripper in 2005 with three mortgages.

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#China just doesn't add value

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One of the most important charts imo. #China population back to where it was in the late 1970s. There are virtual no replacement workforce. China is running out of time. $USDCNY

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@PeterSchiff @SullyCNBC @CNBC 🤔

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#China aggressively using the swap market for $, this was the prelude to the BIS stating $80 trillion in dollar liabilities (mostly short term) are unaccounted for. Now, the PBOC won't update their balance sheet publicly. $USDCNY Capital outflows now surpassing GFC. Enjoy.
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This is why, in large part, inflation in the traditional sense is no longer a thing. U.S. economy is poorer and less skilled since the 80s. The divide between the haves and have not with technology as the line in the sand.

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May just be getting started.... #Russia #Ukraine $USDRUB #oil #commodities http://THEMACROBRIEF.SUBSTACK.COM

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@simon_ree Been a pretty good turn out for me $SPY $XLY $XLP http://THEMACROBRIEF.SUBSTACK.COM
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@StealthQE4 where we rallying to?

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Where's this #China stimulus everyone talking about? $USDCNY

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Not good. Russian 10y back over 10%

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Aint looking good for the ruble. When does Putin advance playing 74D chess? $USDRUB will be up 40% by the end of Q1-23. #oil http://THEMACROBRIEF.SUBSTACK.COM
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I mean, that's great. Was it leaked it would crater afterwords?
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He's been saying this for years. Anyone think this happens? Track record for those trying to buy #oil in ex-dollars ain't great.

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@jimcramer Get yer fuckin act together. this is the shit ppl rip you for. you serve no utility at this point.

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#silver $SLV $SI $AG
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Short-term support. Likely won't last. White arrows indicate trend dynamics are starting to turn (i.e. buy back shorts or add additional long leg within trend). #gold $GDX $GDXJ $GLD $IAU

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lol POWELL: FUCK YER PIVOT The markets unwillingness to see this *enter://buy.the.dip* allows him to get more in. I repeat: "Now imagine the dollar rips and there's still 5-6% inflation." $SPY $QQQ $EURUSD #gold #btc

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who in the absolute fuck uses a three min chart other than ZeroEdge? #oil

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BREAKING: ​#Binance customer withdrawals exceed $3 Billion in 24 hours. I hope this is you guys When #FTX was getting liquidated, and there were talks of a buyout with CZ, I wonder who then would help CZ. Binance is in the same boat. #BNB $bnbusd #ftx #ftt #gold #btc #Bitcoin
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"The Dow Has Given Up All Its CPI-Spike Gains..."

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$TSLA -54% YTD whomp whomp
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Bottom or naw? Same price action before the dump that killed the scams #btc #Bitcoin

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I'll be getting back to writing today. Had to take some personal time off. Nevertheless, you can read this year's work below - to which we nailed most of the moves this year (missed some too!). Recession indicator: 2y hence/2y spread. $SPY #gold #btc http://THEMACROBRIEF.SUBSTACK.COM

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MeLt Up 🫠 Yall screwed. $SPY $QQQ $ARKK $HYG $JNK #gold #btc http://THEMACROBRIEF.SUBSTACK.COM
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Been warning about this for months. Good luck, yall need it.
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Limited dollars edition
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ya fucks think I'm playing. #China is going to be a failed state. Tiananmen Square 2.0
Visegrád 24 @visegrad24
Shanghai protest tonight. People are chanting “down with the Chinese Communist Party” and “step down Xi”. This is happening in cities across the country. Something big is brewing. https://twitter.com/Gary65943410/status/1596582773728641025/video/1

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@Shinola_Trades Narratives die hard, $XLE may die harder. Reality needs to be priced in. Intermediate reversal signal triggered.

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narratives die hard. Over the last six months: #btc (pink), #oil (blue) $ARKK (yellow)

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Headline peaked by the end of Q2. It's down over 1.25% since, which goes against the narrative. Slow, yes but steady given everyone's "softish" landing hope. Issue is with core CPI which likely begins to not grind but gap lower in c. 6 months
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@Shinola_Trades I think it's like any high vol spec pos. I just don't get how ppl fell for all the stories.

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Where were the warning signs? 🤔

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bar graph 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)





Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
etc 52%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
etc 52%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)





Classifier 20221028131014
logos_flags_graphics 45%
star of david 28%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)












Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)






Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
map 97%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)







Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)












Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 55%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
map 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
map 82%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)







Classifier 20221028131014
etc 93%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)













Classifier 20221028131014
etc 45%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
map 98%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
map 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)







Classifier 20221028131014
map 96%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
map 49%
bar graph 35%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
map 72%
bar graph 27%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)







Classifier 20221028131014
art_other 67%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)






Classifier 20221028131014
toons other 55%
art_other 35%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
logos_flags_graphics 92%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)








Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
map 49%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
map 73%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)





Classifier 20221028131014
map 95%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
map 94%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)





Classifier 20221028131014
map 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
map 70%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)





Classifier 20221028131014
map 42%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)









Classifier 20221028131014
toons other 74%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)





Classifier 20221028131014
etc 39%
toons other 26%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)







Classifier 20221028131014
art_other 72%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
map 84%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)


Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 50%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)





Classifier 20221028131014
map 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)






Classifier 20221028131014
art_other 48%
toons other 28%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
art_other 67%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)






Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 92%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 59%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)







Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 87%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 79%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
map 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)





Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 92%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)





Classifier 20221028131014
map 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)





Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
map 79%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)





Classifier 20221028131014

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)







Classifier 20221028131014
map 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
map 98%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
map 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 90%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)



Classifier 20221028131014
hitler 25%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)





Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 56%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)





Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)










Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 32%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 100%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)





Classifier 20221028131014
map 61%
anime 33%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)

Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)





Classifier 20221028131014
tldr 97%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)





Classifier 20221028131014
logos_flags_graphics 77%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
logos_flags_graphics 45%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)






Classifier 20221028131014
bar graph 99%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
map 74%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)








Classifier 20221028131014
map 87%

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)





Classifier 20221028131014

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Object Detector 20221101171408 (everything)




Classifier 20221028131014
toons other 46%